China Coal recently stated during an investor briefing that thermal coal prices are expected to stabilize during the second half of July, supported by improving seasonal demand from power utilities and continued supply constraints.
The company expects the spot price of 5,500 kcal/kg thermal coal at northern ports to trade within a range of RMB 795–835/t throughout July. It noted that, following weakness in the early part of the month, market prices are likely to stabilize as demand from power plants increases during the peak summer consumption season and tighter regulatory oversight continues to constrain supply. Price volatility is also expected to gradually narrow.
Reviewing market performance in June, China Coal said the thermal coal market exhibited a pattern of "rising first and then retreating from high levels." Prices were initially supported by the onset of the summer peak electricity demand season and expectations of lower coal imports, before retreating later in the month as port inventories increased and coal burn at thermal power plants remained relatively weak.
Commenting on the recent rebound in domestic coal prices, the company attributed the gains to tightening supply-demand fundamentals.
On the supply side, stricter and increasingly normalized regulatory oversight, limited production growth, and negative import margins have kept overall coal supply relatively tight. On the demand side, the arrival of the peak summer season and the gradual recovery of restocking demand have continued to support consumption. Taking these factors together, the company expects the average coal price level in 2026 to be higher than last year.
Regarding its own operations, China Coal said commercial coal production declined year on year during the first half of 2026 due to changing geological conditions and increasing operational challenges. The company is actively implementing measures to improve production, with output already recovering on a month-on-month basis in June. At present, it has no plans to revise its full-year production target.
The company also noted that, following major safety-related incidents across China's coal industry, the commissioning schedules for the Weizigou and Libi coal mine projects are expected to be delayed.
In the coking coal segment, China Coal said most of its production comes from Huajin Company, with annual output of around 10 Mt. Sales are primarily priced under monthly and quarterly contracts, and realized prices have increased recently in line with market trends.
For its coal chemical business, the company expects gross profit in the coal chemical segment to improve year on year during the first half of 2026, supported by higher chemical product prices.
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