According to the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), Luo Tiejun, Vice President of CISA, stated at the 2025 CISA Annual Conference held on December 17 that during China’s 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021–2025), the steel industry has increasingly entered a phase characterized by “reduced output and optimization of existing capacity,” with three main manifestations:
First, both supply and demand have declined. From 2020 to 2024, China’s crude steel output dropped from 1.065 billion metric tons to 1.005 billion metric tons—a decrease of 60 million tons. Crude steel consumption fell from 1.048 billion tons to 893 million tons, a reduction of 155 million tons.
Second, product mix transformation has accelerated significantly. Output of construction steel has markedly decreased, while production of manufacturing steel has risen substantially. Between 2020 and 2024, rebar output in China declined by over 70 million tons, whereas hot-rolled coil output increased by approximately 100 million tons. The share of construction-sector steel demand in total demand fell from 58% to 50%, while the manufacturing sector’s share rose from 42% to 50%.
Third, export and import markets have diverged. Steel exports surged, while imports continued to decline. In 2024, China exported 111 million metric tons of steel—more than double the 2020 level—while steel imports fell by 66% to 6.81 million metric tons.
Luo Tiejun noted that it is worth highlighting that throughout the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the steel industry has persistently faced declining supply-demand dynamics and shrinking profitability. Over the past four years, the industry’s profit margin has consistently ranked among the lowest of China’s 41 major industrial sectors.
However, he added that since early 2025, the steel sector has actively responded to challenges posed by strong supply and weak demand by focusing on “controlling total output, optimizing supply, expanding demand, and promoting transformation.” Through enhanced industry self-discipline, crude steel output has stabilized with a slight downward trend, economic performance has improved somewhat, and environmental standards have continued to rise, leading to an overall improvement in industry operations.
Luo pointed out that 2025 has seen a rebound in industry profitability—the best performance since 2022. Despite adverse market conditions, this achievement is primarily attributable to falling fuel costs and strengthened voluntary self-discipline among enterprises. Since 2024, the steel industry has actively heeded national calls and taken concrete actions to counter “self-destructive competition” (commonly referred to as “anti-neijuan”), thereby creating a relatively stable operating environment for steel companies.
Supplementary Data:
According to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, nationwide sales area of newly built commercial housing in 2025 reached 719.82 million square meters, down 6.8% year-on-year.
Total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) also declined by 1.7% year-on-year. The cooling property sector has directly dampened steel demand. Although infrastructure remains a significant consumer of steel, its growth potential has notably narrowed after years of rapid expansion. In 2024, national infrastructure investment grew by only 2.1% year-on-year, a sharp deceleration compared to the double-digit growth rates seen five years ago.
According to monthly coal consumption data by sector monitored by CCTD, coal consumption by iron and steel industry from January to November 2025 showed a slight year-on-year decline, with only the periods January–April and September recording year-on-year increases. In the building materials sector, only March saw a marginal year-on-year increase. Overall, coal consumption by the building materials sector from January to November 2025 decreased by approximately 4.6% year-on-year. Only the chemical industry maintained robust growth, with cumulative coal consumption rising by about 17% year-on-year.
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