CCTD Weekly Review - China (08/11-08/17)

Ports: Spot inflows remain low and inventories continue to decline. Rising logistics costs have strengthened traders’ intention to hold prices, but downstream buyers are purchasing mainly on a just-in-need basis and show limited acceptance of price hikes. As imported coal becomes increasingly cost-competitive, some end-users are switching, further capping spot demand. Meanwhile, certain traders are more willing to sell, weakening upward momentum and narrowing price gains.

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Producing Regions: Mines are selling smoothly, with pithead inventories at low levels. Together with rising port and procurement prices, sentiment remains optimistic.
Short term, market prices are expected to edge higher. On one hand, inverted freight costs suppress port inflows and may keep inventories low, supporting firm trader sentiment. On the other hand, power plants continue fulfilling long-term contracts and show limited interest in spot purchases, while some traders remain inclined to sell, restricting further upside.

[Regional Breakdown]

Bohai Ports: The market is firm but momentum is weakening. Port inventories keep falling, production-area prices continue to rise, and in-demand coal is structurally tight, supporting traders’ strong pricing stance. However, demand is restrained by the growing advantage of imported coal and by traders willing to sell to lock in profits, slowing the pace of price gains. Future focus: terminal demand.

East China: Thermal coal prices remain firm; coke prices have risen for a sixth round; coking coal prices have declined. Coke producers’ profitability has improved, though capacity is limited by environmental and safety inspections. With steel hot metal output high and inventories low, steel mills are pressing for deliveries. Coke supply-demand tensions persist.

North China: Coke prices remain firm. Coke plants are shipping smoothly, inventories are low, and margins are recovering as coking coal prices ease. Still, production expansion is cautious. Steel mills remain profitable, with hot metal output high and inventories low. Supply-demand tightness in coke continues.
CCTD data shows that compared with the previous period, coking coal prices in Shanxi fell by RMB 0–40/ton, with Linfen down 0–20. Thermal coal prices continued to rise.

Northeast & Eastern Inner Mongolia: Overall stable. Long-term contract supplies are steady, end-users continue pulling coal, and the market remains balanced.

Central & South China: Prices keep rising. High market coal prices have increased utilities’ wait-and-see attitude, while imported coal’s cost advantage restrains demand for domestic coal. However, firm trader costs and structural shortages keep prices on an upward trend. As of August 11, 2025, Hubei’s daily power consumption was 873 million kWh, with peak load at 41.34 GW.

South China: Imported coal prices edged higher, supported by more tenders from utilities and stronger international demand.

Northwest China: Long-term contract coal prices are stable, while market coal prices continue to rise. Demand is good, mines are selling smoothly, pithead inventories remain low, and port and auction prices are rising. Uptrend continues.

Southwest China: Thermal coal prices held steady. Coke prices remained firm. Steel mills, with high hot metal output and low inventories, are showing strong demand and can absorb higher coke prices thanks to positive margins. Coke producers see cost relief from lower coking coal prices, but environmental curbs limit output. Thermal coal output is stable, safety checks are frequent, and end-user demand supports steady operation.