CCTD Weekly Review - Ports (07/07-07/13)

Edited and Updated by Ethan Ma

1. Port Prices:
This week, port-side thermal coal prices continued to rise.

Due to persistent high temperatures, daily coal consumption at power plants surged, and inventories fell. Procurement prices gradually increased, although overall demand remained limited.

Ongoing rainfall in major producing areas disrupted both production and transportation. With improving market expectations, traders accelerated restocking and short-covering. Sentiment turned bullish, and offer prices kept rising.

      As of July 11, the CCTD Spot Prices stood at:
        5500 kcal/kg: ¥627/ton (up ¥5 WoW)
        5000 kcal/kg: ¥562/ton (up ¥9 WoW)
        4500 kcal/kg: ¥496/ton (up ¥9 WoW)
 

2. End-User Demand:
On July 9, coal consumption in the eight coastal provinces reached 2.21 million tons,

    up 200,000 tons (+9.7%) from the previous week,
    up 400,000 tons (+22.3%) MoM,
    but down 70,000 tons (-3.0%) YoY.
Inventory stood at 35.17 million tons,
    down 850,000 tons WoW,
    up 990,000 tons MoM,
    down 2.21 million tons YoY.

3. Weather Conditions:
Early July: More rainfall in eastern Northwest and North China; persistent heatwaves in central and eastern regions.

Mid-July: Increased rainfall in Jiangnan and South China, with sustained heat in Huanghuai and surrounding areas.

Precipitation in eastern Southwest, South China, southeastern Jiangnan, northern North China, and Northeast: 30–60 mm, locally up to 80–150 mm, and over 200 mm along coastal Southeast China.

Compared to the historical average, most regions saw 30–60% more rain, except southern North China, Huanghuai, Jianghan, Jianghuai, and Shaanxi, where rainfall was below normal.

4. Freight Rates:
Coastal coal freight rates edged up this week.

High temperatures in East China drove power plant consumption higher, tightening supply of high-quality coal at ports. With falling inventories at northern ports, spot coal prices rose, prompting some buyers to increase hauling amid a “buy-up” mindset.

As of July 10, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index was 716.6 points, up 33.4 points WoW.

    Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou (50–60K DWT): ¥41.2/ton (↑ ¥1.6 WoW)
    Qinhuangdao to Shanghai (40–50K DWT): ¥28.1/ton (↑ ¥1.8 WoW)

5. Port Inventory:
Inventories at northern ports continued to decline.

Frequent rainfall in key producing areas hampered output recovery. Combined with weak demand and low mining enthusiasm, port arrivals remained moderate.

Routine maintenance on the Daqin Railway further limited supply.
Meanwhile, extreme heat and rainfall across much of China sharply increased electricity use, with grid loads in some regions hitting record highs.

End-users maintained steady northbound hauling, and port deliveries slightly rose, consistently exceeding arrivals. As a result, port inventories trended downward.