Edited and Updated by Ethan Ma
July 9, 2025
On July 4th, the State Grid Energy Research Institute’s Economic and Energy Supply-Demand Research Institute released the China Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis Report (2025). The report forecasts that total electricity consumption nationwide will grow by 5% year-on-year in 2025.
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Weather-related factors are playing an increasingly significant role in electricity usage. During the upcoming summer peak season, temperatures across most of the country are expected to be above the historical average, and the overall national power supply-demand balance is projected to be tight. During the winter peak, however, the supply and demand are expected to remain broadly balanced.
According to the report, total electricity consumption in 2025 is projected to reach 10.3 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 5% from the previous year.
By sector, electricity consumption is expected to grow by 9.5% in the primary industry, 3.7% in the secondary industry, 9.5% in the tertiary industry, and 4.4% in residential usage.
Ji Guoqiang, an expert from the State Grid Energy Research Institute, noted that due to policy guidance and market adjustments, electricity consumption is showing a divergent pattern—“pressure on traditional sectors, rise in emerging ones.”
The report also forecasts:
Electricity consumption in the ferrous metals and building materials industries will slightly decline by 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively.
Usage in the non-ferrous metals and chemical sectors will grow modestly by 3.0% and 3.9%.
Electricity consumption from new infrastructure will see rapid growth.
5G base stations are expected to drive more than 30 billion kWh of additional electricity consumption.
Power consumption by data centers (standard racks in use) is projected to rise by about 37 billion kWh to over 160 billion kWh.
As the number of new energy vehicles increases, power demand from charging and battery swap services is estimated to grow by 19 billion kWh, reaching a total of 102 billion kWh.
Regionally, North China (including western Inner Mongolia), East China, and the Southern Grid areas are projected to be the main drivers of electricity demand growth, together contributing over 65% of the increase.
On the supply side, the report predicts 660 GW (gigawatts) of new power generation capacity will be commissioned in 2025, a 53.2% increase over the previous year—setting a new annual record. Of this, 127 GW will be from thermal power, and 520 GW combined from wind and solar installations.
With accelerating global climate change, weather’s impact on electricity usage is becoming more pronounced. The report anticipates that during the 2025 summer peak, most regions in China will experience higher-than-average temperatures. As a result, cooling-related electricity demand will remain high. Factoring in both supply and demand, the nationwide power supply-demand balance is expected to be tight during the summer peak, with localized power shortages during peak hours. In winter, due to warming trends, most regions will see temperatures close to or above historical averages, and the power supply-demand balance will be broadly stable.
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