CCTD Weekly Review - International (06/23-06/29)
Time:2025-07-01 14:52:48 Source:CCTD
Edited and Updated by Ethan MaJuly 1, 2025
Market Trends
[Thermal Coal Market]
Global demand for thermal coal remained generally weak this week, with average weekly prices mostly declining. On the supply side, there were signs of tightening, slightly lifting Newcastle thermal coal prices. However, demand in India was still weak and prices at Richards Bay continued to decline. Coal consumption in Europe also fell, causing CIF prices at European ARA ports to reverse and decline.
As of the week ending June 27:
Newcastle 5500K FOB: $68.4/ton, up $0.3/ton (+0.44%)
Richards Bay: 5500k FOB: $66.29/ton, down $1.46/ton (–2.15%)
ARA 6000K CIF: $104.97/ton, down $1.4/ton (–1.32%)
Asia-Pacific Region
Flooding in New South Wales continued to delay shipments, lending some support to Australian coal prices. Indonesia’s thermal coal market saw a mild rebound in activity, driven by modest recovery in Chinese and Indian demand for low-CV coal. Lower quotes made Indonesian coal more attractive, especially as domestic Chinese coal prices rebounded. Still, overall demand lacked strong momentum, and end users showed limited acceptance of price increases. Indian demand remained sluggish due to monsoon impacts, high inventories at ports and power plants, and weaker coal consumption.
Atlantic Region
Geopolitical instability in the Middle East and weak coal consumption in Europe drove down CIF prices in European ports. In India, early monsoons suppressed industrial and power sector coal demand, prompting sponge iron and cement plants to shift to domestic sources. Demand for South African coal declined, pushing prices further down.
In addition, both China and India have significantly reduced imports of Indonesian low-CV thermal coal in 2025, favoring higher-CV coal from other regions. Indonesian coal struggles to compete with cheaper Russian coal in China, while India is increasing imports from South Africa. As a result, Indonesian producers are pivoting toward the domestic market, with domestic deliveries expected to rise by 3% and exports projected to fall by around 10%.
[Coking Coal Market]
International Market:
Sentiment remained cautious. Indian procurement slowed due to the monsoon season, and weaker-than-expected infrastructure and steel production plans further reduced coking coal demand. In other Asian countries like Japan and South Korea, weak global economic conditions also curbed steel production growth, keeping Australian coking coal prices under pressure.
During the reporting week, the FOB price of Australian Premium Low Vol HCC (Sulfur: 0.5%, Ash: 9.3%, Vol: 21.5%, Moisture: 9.7%, CSR: 71%) closed at USD 173 per ton, down USD 3.4 from the previous week, a decrease of 1.93%.Meanwhile, the CFR price of it into China remained unchanged at USD 157.5 per ton.
Chinese market:
In the Chinese domestic market, an increasing number of coal mines raised prices as transactions continued to recover. In Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, many mines remained idled or operated at reduced capacity due to ongoing safety inspections and environmental restrictions, further tightening regional supply.
On the demand side, steel mills—driven by favorable profit margins—showed limited inclination to conduct maintenance shutdowns, keeping hot metal output at elevated levels. With supply volumes significantly reduced, market sentiment improved. Coking plants began restocking raw coal, while independent washing plants and traders actively entered the market to secure cargo. As a result, contracted sales in production areas improved across the board, inventory pressures eased, and some coal mines saw noticeable destocking. Prices showed a modest rebound.
Mongolian coking coal sales improved as Chinese market sentiment turned bullish and futures prices rose. A noticeable drop in Inner Mongolia's supply also prompted more purchases by Chinese coking plants. Port-side transactions increased, and traders raised offers accordingly.
Statistics
Thailand
According to Thai customs, May 2025 thermal coal imports (bituminous and sub-bituminous) reached 1.9542 million tons, down 10.51% YoY but up 71.98% MoM—a one-year high.
Bituminous coal: 1.0118 million tons (–1.32% YoY, +117.4% MoM)
Sub-bituminous coal: 942,300 tons (–18.64% YoY, +40.47% MoM)
Anthracite: 572 tons, much lower than the 10,000 tons of same period last year
No coking coal imports in May
Jan–May 2025: 7.681 million tons total thermal coal imports (–8.27% YoY)
Bituminous: 2.873 million tons (–6.67% YoY)
Sub-bituminous: 4.808 million tons (–9.2% YoY)
Indonesia
According to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), Jan–May 2025 coal output totaled 308 million tons, down 9.6% YoY and reaching 44.26% of the annual production target (739.67 million tons).
May production: 61.02 million tons (–14.5% YoY, +1.0% MoM)
Russia
Rosstat data shows May 2025 coal production at 34.709 million tons (–3.8% MoM, –2.2% YoY).
Anthracite: 1.953 million tons (+25.5% MoM, +7.3% YoY)
Coking coal: 8.422 million tons (–3.6% MoM, –10.8% YoY)
Other bituminous coal: 16.585 million tons (–0.1% MoM, –1.6% YoY)
Lignite: 7.749 million tons (–15.5% MoM, +5.0% YoY)
Jan–May 2025 total: 180 million tons (+1.6% YoY)
United States
According to the EIA’s Monthly Energy Review, May 2025 coal production is estimated at 46.227 million short tons (41.936 million metric tons), +17.42% YoY and +5.79% MoM.
Jan–May output: 219.536 million short tons (+7.12% YoY)
April coal exports: 7.584 million short tons (+10.83% YoY, –18.44% MoM)
Jan–Apr exports: 31.996 million short tons (–4.91% YoY)
Poland
According to Statistics Poland, May 2025 coal production totaled 5.709 million tons (–12.4% YoY, –1.4% MoM, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline).
Anthracite: 3.008 million tons (–9.8% YoY, –4.6% MoM)
Lignite: 2.701 million tons (–15.2% YoY, +2.5% MoM)
Jan–May 2025 total: 33.908 million tons (–2.3% YoY)
Anthracite: 17.402 million tons (–5.0%)
Lignite: 16.507 million tons (+0.8%)
Germany
Preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office shows April 2025 Anthracite imports at 1.4924 million tons, +8.02% YoY, but –28.53% MoM.
Jan–Apr 2025 total: 7.9395 million tons (+1.51% YoY)
Kazakhstan
According to the Bureau of National Statistics, Jan–Apr 2025 coal exports reached 9.5942 million tons, +7.6% YoY.
April exports: 2.1894 million tons (+17.2% YoY, +3.6% MoM)
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