Edited and Updated by Ethan Ma
July 1, 2025
Port-Side Thermal Coal Market
This week, portside thermal coal prices remained steady to slightly stronger. As high temperatures persist across regions, daily coal consumption at end-user power plants has become more predictable, driving a gradual release of procurement demand.
CCTD China Coal Market Network is one of the most trusted coal industry think tanks in China, providing exclusive and extensive data coverage.
Rising prices in production areas have widened the gap between mine-mouth prices and port delivery prices, resulting in negative delivery margins, which have restricted coal inflows to ports. Additionally, most portside spot cargoes are now concentrated in the hands of large and medium-sized traders, who remain firm on pricing under multiple supportive factors.
As of June 27, CCTD spot prices were as follows:
5500 Kcal/kg: RMB 620/ton (↑ RMB 1 week-on-week)
5000 Kcal/kg: RMB 549/ton (↑ RMB 8 week-on-week)
4500 Kcal/kg: RMB 484/ton (↑ RMB 8 week-on-week)
End-User Consumption and Inventory
As of June 26, 2025, daily coal consumption across eight coastal provinces reached 1.86 million tons/day, showing:
+40,000 tons (+2.4%) compared to last week
+160,000 tons (+9.7%) compared to the same period last month
–110,000 tons (–5.7%) compared to the same period last year
Total coastal inventory stood at 35.38 million tons, representing:
+640,000 tons from last week
+1.93 million tons from last month
–2.70 million tons from the same time last year
Weather Outlook
In recent days, heavy rainfall has been observed in the Jianghan, Jianghuai, and South China regions, while high temperatures dominated North China, southeastern regions, and northern Huanghuai.
In the coming days:
Rainfall is expected across North and Northeast China, Huanghuai, eastern Jianghan, southeastern Northwest China, parts of Southwest and South China.
Cumulative rainfall in most of these areas will exceed historical averages by 30%–70%, and in some cases, even double.
Meanwhile, the middle and lower Yangtze River regions will experience 40%–70% less rainfall than average, entering a high-temperature phase.
Freight Rates
Coastal coal freight rates edged up slightly this week. Continued high temperatures nationwide have increased power plant loads and coal consumption, partially stimulating downstream procurement. However, most coastal power plants maintain reasonable inventory levels, keeping replenishment needs manageable and limiting freight rate increases.
As of June 26:
China Coastal Coal Freight Index: 719.2 points (↑ 33.6 points from June 19)
Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou (50,000–60,000 DWT): RMB 41.5/ton (↑ RMB 1.2)
Qinhuangdao to Shanghai (40,000–50,000 DWT): RMB 28.0/ton (↑ RMB 1.6)
Port Inventory
North China ports saw a slight decline in inventory. Toward month-end, as many coal mines completed their production targets, some began scaling back or suspending production, leading to reduced supply from production areas. Combined with persistently negative transport margins, coal inflows to ports fell slightly.
At the same time, rainy season conditions subsided in the Yangtze River estuary and southeast coastal areas, giving way to high temperatures. This triggered urgent replenishment demand and short-covering near month-end, sustaining a high coal outflow from ports. As a result, total outbound volume slightly exceeded inbound, resulting in a minor drawdown in northern port inventory.
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