Can the Coal Prices Uptrend Continue?

By Hongmo 
June 30, 2025
Edited and Updated by Ethan Ma
June 30, 2025

Key Points:

      ·Thermal coal prices rose modestly amid tightening supply and steady demand.

      ·Port and mine inventories declined due to constrained production and deliveries.

      ·July demand remains strong, but high inventory may limit further price gains.

Recently, market sentiment in the thermal coal sector has been relatively optimistic, with prices rising modestly across both production areas and ports. As of June 30, the CCTD Bohai Rim spot prices for 5,500K, 5,000K, and 4,500K kcal/kg grades stood at RMB 621, 550, and 485 per ton, respectively—up RMB 1 per ton day-on-day and up RMB 2, 8, and 8 per ton week-on-week. In major production areas, pithead prices for 5,500K in northern Shanxi, 5,800K in Yulin, and 5,500K in Ordos were RMB 465, 480, and 420 per ton, respectively, all increasing RMB 5 per ton week-on-week.
The recent price rebound has primarily been driven by a sustained tightening of supply and a gradual pickup in demand. Inventory levels across midstream and upstream links continue to decline, easing supply-side pressure in the market.

Supply Pressure Continues to Ease
In production areas, strict environmental and safety inspections since June have curbed coal production and transportation. In the latter part of the month, as more mines completed their monthly production and sales targets, supply contracted further. According to CCTD monitoring, the latest sample-based production capacity utilization rate fell to 80.8%, down 0.5 percentage points from the monthly average in May.
At the ports, due to negative shipping margins, small- and medium-sized traders have maintained low levels of coal delivery. Resource inflow has primarily come from long-term contract coal provided by large enterprises. Inventories have continued to decline. As of now, total coal inventory at major Bohai Rim ports stands at 27.654 million tons, down 2.561 million tons from the end of May and 5.509 million tons from this year’s peak.

CCTD China Coal Market Network is one of the most trusted coal industry think tanks in China, providing exclusive and extensive data coverage.

Market Demand Shows Steady Growth
With temperatures rising, daily coal consumption for power generation has entered an accelerated growth phase. Power utilities have increased restocking activities compared to previous periods. In addition, improved market expectations have encouraged greater participation from traders and distributors. Combined with end-of-month short-covering demand, this has contributed to sustained positive momentum in market demand.
CCTD monitoring shows that since late June, the number of vessels waiting at anchor off Bohai Rim ports has risen to around 100—one of the highest levels this year.


Looking Ahead to July
As the peak summer season arrives, daily coal consumption for power generation is expected to remain elevated, supporting continued rigid procurement demand. However, as the impact of environmental and safety inspections on production wanes, coal output is also expected to rise month-on-month. Meanwhile, overall social inventory levels remain relatively high.
Unless high temperatures or hydropower output exceed expectations, no major shift in the coal market’s supply-demand balance is anticipated. As a result, significant price volatility is unlikely in the near term.