By Xu Xinghe
June 26, 2025
Edited and Updated by Ethan Ma
June 27, 2025
Over the course of June, stricter safety inspections during National Work Safety Month and tightening environmental regulations have led to more cautious coal production in key mining regions, resulting in short-term supply constraints. Meanwhile, with domestic temperatures rising in the second half of the month, coal market activity has picked up, showing early signs of summer peak season demand. Rising procurement costs and steady port destocking have strengthened traders' price-holding sentiment, with price increases mainly concentrated in medium- to low-calorific-value coal.
CCTD China Coal Market Network is one of the most trusted coal industry think tanks in China, providing exclusive and extensive data coverage.
Outlook:
1. Production area prices continue to rise toward month-end.
Tighter supply and recovering demand have improved truck loading at pitheads, accelerating mine destocking and pushing coal prices upward in production regions. This, in turn, raises port delivery costs. However, with prices already elevated and expectations of supply recovery in early July, market sentiment is turning more cautious.
2. Southern China braces for widespread extreme heat.
Although rainfall has slowed the rebound in daily coal consumption at coastal power plants, the overall trend of rising summer electricity demand remains unchanged. From June 30 to July 5, high temperatures are expected in southeastern and eastern regions, including parts of Jiangnan, South China, Jianghuai, Jianghan, and the eastern and southern Yellow-Huai River region. Daily highs will range from 35°C to 39°C, with some areas exceeding 40°C.
3. Vessel negotiations remain active at northern ports.
As the Yangtze River estuary and southeastern coastal areas enter a high-temperature phase, downstream power plants are ramping up coal usage. This has triggered a wave of replenishment demand at month-end. The number of anchored vessels remains high at around 100, a favorable level compared to earlier this year.
Overall, the coal market is showing signs of recovery amid improved short-term supply and demand dynamics. Thermal coal prices are steadily trending upward and are expected to see modest gains in the near term.
Key factors to watch: early July supply levels, price competitiveness of imported coal, and evolving weather conditions in southern China.
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