China's coal consumption is expected to peak around 2028, the China National Coal Association forecast on Wednesday.
Zhang Hong, a spokesperson for the association, said: "It's important to note that reaching the peak around 2028 doesn't automatically signify an immediate decline in coal consumption afterward. Rather, it marks the beginning of a transitional phase.
"As new energy technologies like hydrogen and energy storage advance during this transitional period, we can expect a discernible decrease in coal consumption afterward," he said.
Zhang underscored the necessity for coal enterprises to spearhead transformation and advancement during this transitional phase.
This year, coal production and consumption are expected to maintain growth, with coal imports potentially decreasing year-on-year but remaining at high levels, according to the association's estimates.
"Among key coal-consuming sectors, the power industry is anticipated to witness a continued uptick in coal consumption. Considering ongoing economic structural optimizations and the growing contribution of hydroelectric and alternative energy sources, there might be an approximate 100 billion kilowatt-hours increase in coal-fired power generation this year, fueling the demand for coal consumption," said Guo Zhonghua, director for policy research at the association.
"In contrast, coal usage in the steel and building materials sectors is likely to stabilize with a marginal decrease, while coal consumption in the chemical industry is poised for a moderate uptick," he said.
Last year, China's output of raw coal went up by 1.2 percent year-on-year to 4.78 billion metric tons, said the association, citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics. According to the General Administration of Customs, cumulative coal imports amounted to 540 million tons, an increase of 68.28 million tons from the previous year, or a growth of 14.4 percent. China's cumulative coal exports reached 6.66 million tons last year, showing a year-on-year increase of 49.1 percent.
At present, there are nearly 4,300 operational coal mines, boasting a coal mining mechanization rate of 99.32 percent. Guo said that international collaborations have broadened in recent years, with companies successfully exporting coal machinery products to regions spanning Europe, the United States, Australia, and Russia.
Wang Danshi, deputy director of the association's statistics and information department, said coal companies in China are actively embracing artificial intelligence, with a majority having either deployed large-scale model application scenarios or preparing to conduct related research and development work.
"For instance, inspection robots have replaced a large number of underground inspection workforce, and many coal mines have applied unmanned driving technology, making coal mining safer and more efficient," he said.
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