US to remain net energy exporter from 2020 till 2047: EIA

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that the United States will become a net exporter of energy in 2020 and will maintain the position until 2047.

In its latest Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020), released on Wednesday, EIA said the United States will export more petroleum and other liquids than it will import annually starting in 2020 as U.S. crude oil production continues to increase and domestic consumption of petroleum products decreases.

The United States imported more energy than it exported annually since 1953, but continued growth in petroleum and natural gas exports results in the country becoming a net energy exporter in 2020 in all AEO2020 cases.

Near the end of the projection period, the United States will return to importing more petroleum and other liquids than its exports on an energy basis as a result of increasing domestic gasoline consumption and falling domestic crude oil production after 2047.

In the AEO2020 Reference case, U.S. crude oil production will reach 14.0 million barrels per day by 2022 and will remain near this level through 2045 as tight oil development moves into less productive areas and well productivity declines.

Meanwhile, EIA's assumed crude oil prices in AEO2020 are influenced more by assessments of international markets than by assumptions about domestic resources and technological advances.

In the High Oil Price case, EIA forecast the price of Brent crude oil in 2019 dollars will reach 183 U.S. dollars per barrel by 2050, compared with 105 dollars per barrel in the Reference case and 46 dollars per barrel in the Low Oil Price case.

The United States became a net natural gas exporter on an annual basis in 2017 and continued to export more natural gas than it imported in 2018 and in 2019.

In the AEO2020 Reference case, liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to more distant destinations will increasingly dominate the U.S. natural gas trade, and the United States is projected to remain a net natural gas exporter through 2050.