Tighter Supply and Improving Demand Drive Strong Gains in Mongolian Coal Prices
Time:2026-08-25 10:12:57 Source:
The Mongolian coal market at China’s border ports remained strong last week, with prices rising broadly. A slower-than-expected recovery in domestic coal supply, continued strength in coking coal futures, and a sharp decline in traffic at the Ganqimaodu border crossing jointly tightened the availability of Mongolian coal. Against this backdrop, downstream purchasing activity strengthened significantly, while sentiment across the coking and steel sectors also improved, with steel mills beginning to accept further increases in coke prices.
Sharp Decline in Border Traffic Tightens Available Supply
The supply contraction was particularly pronounced at Ganqimaodu. Mongolian coal imports had remained relatively high previously, creating some pressure for adjustment. Meanwhile, a network outage and tighter environmental controls at the border further restricted customs clearance efficiency.
From August 17 to 22, average daily traffic at Ganqimaodu fell to just 590 trucks, down 46.1% from the August 10–15 average. The sharp decline in traffic rapidly reduced available coal supplies at the border, prompting traders to become increasingly reluctant to sell.
As of August 23, coal inventories at supervised warehouses at Ganqimaodu had fallen to around 2.3 Mt, down about 24% WoW. Inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks, reaching their lowest level since November 2025.
Tight Supply and Recovering Demand Push Mongolian Coal Prices Higher
The continued tightening of supply, combined with stronger downstream demand, provided strong support for Mongolian coal prices. As inventories declined and available cargoes became increasingly scarce, traders raised their offers rapidly.
On August 21, the tax-inclusive ex-warehouse price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu reached RMB 1,501/t, up RMB 204/t WoW. Meanwhile, the price of Mongolian 5 washed coal at Jinquan rose RMB 45/t to RMB 1,595/t.
In addition, some coal washing plants and coking plants have increased purchases of raw coal from the Ceke border crossing as supplies from other channels have tightened. This has boosted trading activity at Ceke and further highlighted the supply shortage.
The Mandula border crossing is also facing tight supply and strong downstream restocking demand. With domestic coal and other imported coal prices rising broadly, while freely tradable supplies at the border remain limited, traders have also raised their offers.
Outlook: Supply Constraints to Continue Supporting Mongolian Coal Prices
Looking ahead, Mongolian coal prices are expected to remain firm in the short term, with supply constraints continuing to provide the main source of support.
On the domestic side, tighter safety inspections and slow mine restarts continue to constrain the recovery of domestic coking coal supply. On the import side, traffic at Ganqimaodu is unlikely to return rapidly to previous high levels, suggesting that tight availability at the border could persist.
On the demand side, the first round of coke price hikes was implemented at the beginning of this week, while a second round is being considered. This has further improved coking coal demand and overall market sentiment. With the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” peak demand season approaching, downstream restocking demand is expected to gradually recover.
Overall, the Mongolian coal market is likely to remain supported by tight supply and improving demand in the short term, keeping prices on a firm trajectory. However, attention should remain focused on the pace of recovery in border traffic and the strength of actual downstream restocking demand.
褰檽锟斤拷?