China's domestic coking coal market has remained broadly stable but is showing increasing signs of weakness, as seasonal demand softens and buyers become more cautious toward high-priced raw materials.
Sluggish downstream demand has become the primary headwind for the market. Coke producers and steel mills have largely limited purchases to immediate requirements, while expectations of a price correction continue to build. Some mine-mouth prices in Shanxi have already edged lower. After several weeks of firm pricing, shipments from coal mines have slowed, and auction results at major Shanxi mines have weakened, with more cargoes selling at lower prices or remaining unsold. Traders have also adopted a wait-and-see approach rather than building inventories at current price levels.
Despite weakening demand, supply constraints continue to provide underlying support. Strict safety inspections remain in place across Shanxi, with production disrupted by inspections, longwall relocations, equipment replacement, and maintenance work. As of July 1, a total of 50 coking coal mines remained idled across Changzhi, Taiyuan, Jinzhong, Lüliang and Linfen, representing approximately 56.6 million tonnes of annual production capacity. Meanwhile, many producers are still fulfilling previously signed contracts, leaving inventory pressure relatively limited.
The imported coking coal market has also remained subdued. Following the end of the Mongolian truck drivers' strike, cross-border shipments have gradually returned to normal, with truck crossings at the Ganqimaodu border port recovering to 1,296 vehicles on July 1. However, trading activity at the border remained quiet as weak coking coal futures weighed on market sentiment. Traders largely maintained stable offers, with Mongolian No. 5 raw coal quoted at around RMB 1,150/t (including tax) on an ex-yard basis.
Overall, the market is being shaped by the ongoing tug-of-war between weakening demand and constrained supply. While strict safety inspections continue to limit domestic production, cautious downstream buying and fewer new orders are weighing on market sentiment. As a result, coking coal prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, with market participants closely watching steel demand, mine safety inspections, and the pace of Mongolian coal imports.
褰檽锟斤拷?