China May Thermal Coal Imports Continue to Decline Year-on-Year

Total Imports Remain Under Pressure
According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, thermal coal imports reached 21.30 Mt in May 2026, up 2% from April but down 22% year on year. Total imports for January-May stood at 123.58 Mt, a decline of 10% year on year, representing a reduction of 13.86 Mt.

While imports recovered slightly on a monthly basis, the sharp annual decline reflects ample domestic coal supply, strong long-term contract coverage, and weaker import economics amid relatively high overseas coal prices and transportation costs.

Diverging Performance Among Major Suppliers
Indonesia: Monthly Recovery, Annual Decline
China imported 12.20 Mt of thermal coal from Indonesia in May, up 10% from April but down 7% year on year. Imports during the first five months of 2026 were 5.29 Mt lower than the same period last year.

The monthly increase was supported by stronger pre-rainy-season shipments from Indonesian miners and inventory replenishment by Chinese coastal power plants ahead of the summer demand season. However, tighter Indonesian export policies, priority supply to domestic power generation, and weaker price competitiveness continued to weigh on imports compared with last year.

Russia: Rebound from April, but Sharp Year-on-Year Decline
Imports from Russia totaled 2.15 Mt in May, up 29% month on month but down 58% year on year. January-May imports reached 9.89 Mt, down 37% from a year earlier, representing a reduction of 5.81 Mt.
The monthly recovery was aided by improved logistics at ports and border crossings, as well as modest replenishment demand from some industrial consumers. Nevertheless, Russian coal exports to China remain significantly lower due to shifting export flows toward other markets and cautious purchasing by Chinese buyers.

Mongolia: The Only Major Supplier Recording Growth
China imported 2.90 Mt of thermal coal from Mongolia in May, down 19% from April but up 58% year on year. Cumulative imports during January-May reached 15.66 Mt, an increase of 48% year on year, or 5.10 Mt.
Improved border clearance efficiency and lower transportation costs have strengthened the competitiveness of Mongolian coal, allowing it to gain market share in China's import mix. The monthly decline in May was mainly attributed to seasonal demand weakness and weather-related disruptions at border crossings.

Australia: Largest Decline Among Major Suppliers
Imports from Australia totaled 3.33 Mt in May, down 12% from April and 52% from a year earlier. January-May imports reached 21.78 Mt, down 23% year on year, a reduction of 6.33 Mt.
Rising Australian coal prices, higher freight costs, and stronger demand from other Asian markets have eroded the competitiveness of Australian coal in China, leading to weaker buying interest among domestic consumers.

Outlook
China's thermal coal imports contracted during the first five months of 2026, reflecting stronger domestic supply security and weakening import economics.
Structurally, the market is showing a clear shift from seaborne imports toward neighboring land-based supplies. Mongolian coal has emerged as the key growth source, while Indonesia remains the dominant supplier. Meanwhile, Australian and Russian coal continue to lose market share.

Looking ahead, summer power demand and inventory replenishment by coastal utilities are expected to support a month-on-month increase in imports during June, with Indonesia and Mongolia likely to provide most of the additional volumes. However, given abundant domestic supply and limited import cost advantages, June imports are still expected to remain below year-earlier levels, and the overall year-to-date decline in thermal coal imports is likely to persist.