Tight Coking Coal Supply Supports Market, Senth Coke Price Hike Implemented

The coking coal and coke markets continued to strengthen at the beginning of the week, supported by ongoing supply tightness caused by strict mine safety inspections.

Slow Supply Recovery Keeps Coking Coal Prices Firm
Safety inspections remain stringent in major producing regions such as Shanxi. Although some mines have gradually resumed production, the recovery pace has been slow, with output at many mines still below pre-accident levels.
As of June 15, the ex-mine price of low-sulfur prime coking coal in Shanxi stood at Yuan 1,950/mt, up Yuan 30/mt from June 12. Tight availability of high-quality coking coal continued to support prices, with most online auctions clearing at premiums. While price gains for some coal grades have begun to moderate, many mines are still prioritizing previously contracted orders and limiting spot sales, keeping market prices elevated.

Seventh Coke Price Increase Takes Effect
On the demand side, coking plants continue to face difficulties replenishing raw coal inventories, which remain at relatively low levels. Against this backdrop, the seventh round of coke price increases was implemented on June 15, with prices rising Yuan 50-55/mt. Since early April, coke prices have increased by a cumulative Yuan 350-385/mt.
However, rising coking coal costs continue to pressure coke producers. Some plants that rely heavily on high-priced skeletal coal have fallen into losses and have been forced to cut production, leading to a further decline in overall coke output. Low coke inventories at plants continue to provide support for prices.

Stable Steel Mill Demand Supports Market
Blast furnace operating rates at steel mills remain relatively high, sustaining coke consumption. In addition, rail transportation disruptions in some regions have reduced coke deliveries to mills, resulting in lower inventories and increasing mills' willingness to accept higher prices.
Although the steel market has entered its traditional off-season, the combination of tightening coke supply, elevated raw material costs, and resilient steel mill demand is expected to keep the coke market firm in the near term.

Mongolian Coal Market Sees Weaker Sentiment
In the import market, sentiment at the Ganqimaodu border crossing has softened. Buyers have adopted a wait-and-see approach amid volatile futures prices, leading to sluggish trading activity.
Mongolian Grade 5 raw coal was quoted at around Yuan 1,220-1,230/mt, including tax, on a truck-delivered basis. Market participants are closely monitoring futures market movements and the pace of domestic coking coal supply recovery.